Week In Review

Major U.S. equity indices tumbled as perpetual tariff pandemonium and checkered economic updates conspired to escalate market uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended previously announced tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico until early April, but the capitulation evidently sparked greater investor anxiety regarding growth and inflation. A weaker-than-expected payrolls report contributed to those concerns. The economy added 151,000 jobs in February, less than analyst forecasts of 170,000. More importantly, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. In contrast, the Fed Beige Book was a beacon of light. Although the report acknowledged growing price sensitivity and lower consumer spending, stable demand for essential goods supports near-term economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s economic outlook validated that transcript. Speaking at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Powell stated “we do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.” Regardless, economic and interest rate ambiguity encouraged cautious sentiment and a risk-off market, with all sectors except health care falling. The S&P 500 plunged -3.1%, the worst decline since September 2024.3 

This Week

The financial markets have a sparse economic and earnings calendar. The clincher for investor sentiment will be the update for retail inflation. Analysts expect the Consumer Price Index for the month of February to increase 2.9% from a year ago, a decline from 3.0% in January. As a technological bellwether, Oracle’s results could sway market momentum. 

Portfolio Themes

Extended price-earnings ratios suggest that earnings growth will be the primary driver of equity price appreciation rather than multiple expansion. Dramatic growth in earnings is expected for the health care, industrials, and materials sectors. Simplicity offers model portfolios that may be able to take advantage of shifting market leadership and deliver relative value.

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Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes chart sourced from State Street Global Advisors.

1Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums.

2Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

3CNBC. Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.