Weekly Market Commentary -  Dec. 8, 2025

Week In Review

Surprisingly poor labor market updates and moderating inflation numbers strengthened expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut and bolstered market momentum, nudging major U.S. equity

indices higher. The ADP employment report revealed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, a sharp contrast to the upward revisions in September and October. On Thursday, Challenger, Gray & Christmas released its November 2025 job cut report. The job losses were notable for pushing the cumulative total for the year past 1.17 million, the highest since 2020.

Artificial intelligence automation, government downsizing and corporate restructurings were the main

drivers, signaling deeper economic shifts.3 The core PCE deflator for the month of September increased 0.2% and is up 2.8% from a year ago, down from 2.9% in August. Collectively, cooling inflation and a declining employment base suggests the Federal Reserve has increasing flexibility to reduce interest rates for a third time this year. Bad news was good news for stocks and the S&P 500 edged up +0.3%.

This Week

The highlights will be the final FOMC interest rate decision of 2025 and post-meeting presser with

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since inflation is subsiding and the risk has shifted to a slowing labor market, another reduction in the federal funds rate is widely expected. The CME FedWatch Tool places the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 88%.4

Portfolio Themes

The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) includes stocks from 23 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries.5 Through October, over 75% of those countries had outpaced the U.S.

The outperformance is due primarily to a weakening U.S. dollar and a relative valuation discount to the S&P 500. Simplicity offers model portfolios with international equity exposure that may enhance risk-adjusted returns.

_______________________________________

Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes idea sourced from State Street Investment Management.

1Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums. Indices are not typically available for direct investment, are unmanaged, and do not incur fees or expenses.

2 Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX).

3 The Conference Board.

4 First Trust.

5 Investopedia.

6 State Street Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.