Weekly Market Commentary -  Dec. 1, 2025

Week In Review

Declining consumer confidence, slowing retail sales and steady inflation data increased expectations

for a December Federal Reserve rate cut and rejuvenated market sentiment, driving major U.S. equity indices higher. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November, a 6.8-point decrease from the previous month and its lowest level since April.3 The decrease in confidence was largely attributed to concerns about higher consumer prices and a weakening labor market. U.S. retail sales rose just 0.2% in September, below expectations for a 0.4% increase but still up at a 6.3% annual rate in Q3, the fastest quarterly pace since 2023.4

The Producer Price Index for the month of September was also reported in a holiday-shortened week

and “core” prices rose 0.1%, up 2.6% on an annual basis. Collectively, the data suggests the Federal Reserves has the flexibility to cut rates for a third time this year. The previous week’s market pullback and concerns of an AI bubble were a distant memory, as investor optimism pushed the S&P 500 up by +3.7%.

This Week

In advance of the final monetary policy meeting of 2025, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a

panel discussion as part of the Hoover Institution's George Shultz Memorial Lecture Series. Investors will also have the PCE Price Index for review, a critical Fed inflation barometer. The earnings season is nearly done, with Salesforce, Marvell Technology, CrowdStrike, Dollar Tree and Dollar General reporting financial results.5

Portfolio Themes

Earnings growth drives shareholder value. The technology and financial sectors account for more than

half of projected earnings growth for 2026.6 In particular, firms in the AI ecosystem are generating strong cash flows. Simplicity offers tactical equity strategies that may enhance returns by aligning capital with narrow market leadership and a cycle of innovation.

_______________________________________

Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes idea sourced from State Street Investment Management.

1Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums. Indices are not typically available for direct investment, are unmanaged, and do not incur fees or expenses.

2 Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX).

3 The Conference Board.

4 First Trust.

5 Investopedia.

6 State Street Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.