Weekly Market Commentary -  October 6, 2025

Week In Review

Despite growing evidence of labor market fatigue and the possibility of a prolonged U.S. government

shutdown instigating an economic slowdown, the financial markets brushed off the political malaise and sent U.S. equity indices higher on tech sector strength and the odds of further Fed easing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics halted the release of the U.S. nonfarm payroll report due to the lapse in government services, but data provided by the ADP private sector employment report showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September, a big drop compared to the positive 45,000 forecast.3 The weaker data heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut in October. Treasury yields declined on the news and alongside a major funding round for OpenAI and continued investor fervor for everything AI related, the S&P 500 advanced to a new record high of 6,716, increasing +1.1%.

This Week

Notwithstanding the government shutdown, multiple Fed governors will give speeches that may signal

future policy intentions and move markets. Since the Federal Reserve is a self-funded institution, the September FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday as anticipated. The third quarter earnings season begins with PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Constellation Brands, and McCormick & Company broadcasting results.

Portfolio Theme

With the anticipation of lower interest rates, individual investors have now joined central bank buyers

and pushed the price of gold to all-time highs. While the relative strength of gold suggests the price may continue to rise, more elegant alternative assets may provide both diversification and yield. Simplicity Wealth’s Multi-Manager Model Suite enables advisors to build custom portfolios while preserving the integrity of the original risk profiles. Model substitutes provide flexibility to choose alternative assets to meet specific goals, and include real estate, infrastructure, gold and crypto.

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Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes chart sourced from J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 1Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums. Indices are not typically available for direct investment, are unmanaged, and do not incur fees or expenses. 2 Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX). 3MarketWatch. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.