Weekly Market Commentary - October 13, 2025
Week In Review
The prospect of a renewed trade war and the uncertainty of a protracted U.S. federal government
shutdown quickly revamped market sentiment and was the impetus for a downturn across all major U.S. equity indices. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed an additional 100% tariff on goods imported from China and announced export controls on critical software in response to China’s “hostile” export controls on rare earth elements. China threatened to retaliate if the U.S. followed through on the saber-rattling and stocks reversed gains from earlier in the week. The closure of the U.S. government entered its second week and the data blackout and potential for federal layoffs hurt investor sentiment as well. Treasury yields declined in a flight to safety and gold prices continued their ascent due to the increased geopolitical risk and economic anxiety. The S&P 500 hit a new high of 6,764 before backtracking, slipping -2.4%.3
This Week
Although the U.S. bond markets will be closed due to the Columbus Day holiday and the government
shutdown will continue to delay the release of key economic data, some non-government sources will deliver reports. Indicators include the Fed Beige Book, Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the NAHB Housing Market Index. 4 The third quarter earnings season ramps up with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Taiwan Semiconductor broadcasting results. 5
Portfolio Themes
Hedged equity products, also known as buffer ETF strategies, are quite popular and for good reasons. During periods of market stress, the rolling drawdown of buffer products has generally outperformed target indices.6 Simplicity Wealth’s Multi-Manager Model Suite uses model substitutes, providing advisors with the flexibility to customize the portfolio with a buffer ETF strategy while retaining the integrity of the original risk profile.
_______________________________________
Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes chart sourced from Nasdaq.
1 Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums. Indices are not typically available for direct investment, are unmanaged, and do not incur fees or expenses.
2 Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX).
3CNBC.
4MarketWatch.
5 Kiplinger.
6 Nasdaq. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.
