Weekly Market Commentary - August 11, 2025

Week In Review

Soft jobs data boosted the odds for a September Fed rate cut above 90% and major U.S. equity indices

recovered from the previous week’s selloff. 3 Market sentiment found additional support from another wave of second quarter corporate earnings reports that handily beat analyst expectations. Apple was particularly influential in fomenting broad equity momentum. Not only did Apple report record revenue and earnings for the quarter, but the company also announced $100 billion in U.S. investment on top of the recent $500 billion commitment and launched the “American Manufacturing Program” that advances technology production in the U.S. The program is expected to create thousands of new jobs in artificial intelligence and establish a more robust domestic silicon supply chain. Yet, Apple has not been the only company posting good financial results. To date, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly numbers and 81% have bested analyst earnings estimates by an average of 8.4%. 4 Despite inflation risks and high equity valuations, the Nasdaq Composite surged +3.9% to a record high and the S&P 500 followed suit, up +2.4%.

This Week

The latest retail inflation update arrives on Tuesday and could be the catalyst for an uptick in market

volatility. Both the CPI and core CPI are expected to rise, from 2.7% to 2.8% and from 2.9% to 3.1%, respectively.5 The U.S. retail sales update will be a key indicator of consumer spending. The earnings season resumes with 8 S&P 500 companies reporting results, including Cisco, Applied Materials, Cardinal Health, and Deere. 6

Portfolio Theme

The Fed will likely reduce interest rates later this year, so reinvestment risk is a concern. Fortunately,

bond yields trade at historically high levels. Moreover, the term premium, or extra yield you receive for taking on the interest rate risk of holding a 10-year bond, is the highest in ten years. Simplicity can offer custom bond portfolios that may exploit current yields.

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Data: Unless otherwise noted, data for charts, graphs, and tables is sourced from YCharts. Portfolio Themes chart sourced from State Street Investment Management.

1Style box returns use various Russell indices tied to specific areas of the market cap (vertical) and style (horizontal) spectrums.

2 Index Statistics: P/E Ratio – Displays the forecasted P/E ratio of the representative index ETF. Yield - Dividend-per-share divided by current share price. Table statistics are updated weekly. MSCI indices represent broad global and international equity markets. Indices are represented by iShares ETF proxies (IVW, IVV, IVE, ACWI, and ACWX). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

3 CME FedWatch Tool.

4 FactSet.

5 MarketWatch.

6 FactSet.

Weekly commentary and investment advisory services are provided by Simplicity Wealth, LLC a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply a certain

level of skill or training. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation. The information contained

within has been obtained from various sources and is believed to be accurate at the time of publication.